I keep hearing people in the industry say that streaming killed the music business. It’s a neat story, and it has elements of truth — recorded music revenue collapsed for a decade, and many artists who built careers on album sales found themselves struggling. But if you look at what’s actually happening in Australian live music, the picture is more complicated and, in many ways, more optimistic.

The revenue shift

The basic math has changed fundamentally. For most Australian artists below the arena level, recorded music revenue is now a fraction of what it once was. A million Spotify streams generates about $4,000-$5,000. A single sold-out show at a decent venue generates more than that.

This isn’t a tragedy — it’s a restructuring. The value has shifted from recordings to performances, and artists who’ve adapted to this reality are often doing better than their equivalents a decade ago. They tour more, they merchandise smarter, they build direct relationships with fans that translate into ticket sales.

The artists who are struggling are the ones who haven’t adapted — who still expect recorded music to be the primary revenue stream and treat live performance as promotion for the album. That model is gone, and mourning it doesn’t bring it back.

Discovery has changed, not died

Here’s the thing about streaming that even its critics should acknowledge: it’s created the most powerful music discovery engine in history. An Australian artist can reach listeners worldwide without a record deal, a distribution network, or radio airplay. That’s remarkable.

And those listeners convert to live music audiences. I’ve worked with multiple Australian acts who’ve built international touring careers almost entirely on the back of streaming audiences discovering their music. They didn’t need a label to put them on the radio. They needed good music and an algorithm that surfaced it to the right people.

For promoters, streaming data is now one of the most useful tools for gauging demand. You can see, in real time, how many listeners an artist has in your city. That wasn’t possible in the CD era unless you had access to SoundScan data, which most independent promoters didn’t.

The live music boom is real

Despite all the hand-wringing about the state of the music industry, live music attendance in Australia has been growing. The post-pandemic recovery was faster and stronger than most people expected, and average ticket prices have risen significantly.

Some of this is pent-up demand. Some of it is demographic — millennials and Gen Z are spending a larger share of their entertainment budget on experiences rather than products, and live music is the quintessential experience. And some of it is the streaming effect itself: more people discovering more music means more people wanting to see those artists live.

What streaming hasn’t fixed

I don’t want to paint too rosy a picture. Streaming hasn’t solved the problem of artist compensation. The per-stream rates are inadequate, and the distribution of revenue is heavily skewed toward the top of the market. Most artists don’t earn a living from streaming; they earn a living from touring, and streaming is the marketing engine that drives that.

Streaming also hasn’t solved the discoverability problem for niche genres. The algorithms favour music that’s similar to what’s already popular, which can make it harder for experimental, indigenous, or culturally specific music to find its audience without the kind of curatorial support that labels and radio once provided.

Where this leaves us

The live music industry isn’t dying. It’s adapting to a world where recorded music is abundant and free (or nearly so), and live performance is scarce and valuable. That’s actually a pretty good position for anyone who works in the live events space.

The challenge is making sure the infrastructure — venues, touring circuits, support networks — exists to capitalise on this demand. We need the rooms for artists to play in, the promoters willing to take risks on emerging acts, and the touring support that lets artists reach audiences outside the capital cities.

Streaming changed the game. It didn’t end it. And if we’re smart about how we build the live music ecosystem around this new reality, Australian artists and audiences will both be better off.